The World Corona Changed: Us, China and Middle Powers in the New International Order by Renato Galvaao Flores

Author:Renato Galvaao Flores [Flores, Renato Galvaao]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9780367763855
Google: h5FDEAAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 58210636
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2021-09-01T00:00:00+00:00

Russia

Though heavily hurt by the pandemics, but showing its historical resilience, be it in the number of deaths per 1 million people, be it in the forefront of the competition for a performing vaccine, Russia continues to be a major middle power, geopolitically and militarily relevant.

The fact that the Russian Army is perhaps the best trained-on-the ground force in the world, having been in constant, uninterrupted activity for more than a hundred years, together with the country being a major actor as regards nuclear armament and weapons technology in general, makes it a more than significant actor.

It is outside the purpose of this text to review the arguable relationship and related behaviour of the West, notably the US and the EU, with the post-Soviet Union Russia, in the significant unfoldings that were the German re-unification, the NATO enlargement and the not so discreet urge to encompass, if possible, Georgia and Moldavia, together with the two-sided tale of Ukraine, when top EU officials openly encouraged the population to depose a government duly elected. If the EU, out of all this, was and is afraid of Russia, Russia – and very likely correctly – was and is also afraid of the EU and NATO.

Relations grounded on reciprocal fear do not announce constructive outcomes. Aggressive rhetoric, many times from representatives of the US establishment, coupled with a wish-list in which Vladimir Putin is a malignant genius to be disposed of, while the “oppressed Russian people can be redeemed thanks to the attraction of Western values”, despite being hurt by blind sanctions imposed on them by the very West, have an undisputable taste of éternel retour and do not seem the way to find stable solutions, if any at all. The resilient Russian economy, by diverting imports, cleverly resorting to an import substitution industrial policy and boosting domestic agriculture, has managed to more than survive in the face of continual Western economic restrictions.

The Russian dilemma has two dimensions. First, to assure a minimum breathing space in its surroundings, keeping part of the Soviet remains especially as regards defence and strategic positions: the Crimean affair is an emblematic example of this. In this dimension, there is substantial overlap with European projects, desires, suspicions and fears. Second, in a broader scope, to exert influence – for multiple reasons, strategic as well as cultural and economic – in farther zones, basically Central Europe and the Middle East, where its intervention in the Syrian imbroglio has also been emblematic.

The possibility of a more conciliatory dialogue between it and the US, in the post-Covid times, is doubtful, as positions are deeply ingrained and would require a longer horizon to actually change. Its closer associate will become ever more China: the two countries will manage a motley relationship in which closeness will not exclude autonomy and sometimes controlled divergence. It will be easier to align interests with the Chinese power than with the old American rival, in the midst of a complex game in which Asian middle powers like the Koreas, Japan and even ASEAN members will also be involved.

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